Earlier this week it was reported that the next-generation iPhone will be released to retail shops during the week on September 12th and then released for the public on September 16th. Based on what I have seen from Apple over the last four years of iPhone releases, I wanted to share my thoughts. There are four events that need to take place in September before the end of the month and the days they occur on are quite consistent from year-to-year. The Back-to-School promotion always ends before the iPhone is released, the special media event for the announcement of the new iPhone occurs on a Tuesday or Wednesday, the next-generation iOS is released on the following Wednesday, and the iPhone comes out either the same week or the week after on a Friday. The dates of these events are key for us to predict when we will be able to start buying the iPhone 7.
Back to School Event
Every summer Apple hosts their Back-to-School promotion which is a method they use to clear out stock of the old iPhone. Originally this sales event was limited to the Mac, but recently the company began to give free accessories or gifts cards with the purchase of an iPhone or iPad too. This year, customers can purchase an iPhone, iPad, or Mac and get a free pair of wireless Beats headphones. By offering a free gift with the purchase, Apple hopes to clear out the stock of the iPhone 6s ahead of the iPhone 7 announcement. The event ends on Monday, September 5th which happens to also be Labor Day.
Looking back at their previous promotions, the Back-to-School event always ends before the final release date of the new iPhone. There appears to be no correlation to other events in September, just that it ends before the new iPhone comes out.
Expected Special Media Event Date
The next major event of September is the special media announcement for the latest iPhones and software for the iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch. Apple will announce these products and then release them in the days/weeks following the event. This event, at least for the last four years, was held either on Tuesday or Wednesday and always the week before the newest software was released. With the exception of the iPhone 6s, it was also about a week and a half before the release of the new iPhone. Apple added an extra week between their announcement and the iPhone 6s launch.
Based on Apple’s history, the special media event will likely be held on Tuesday, September 6th or Wednesday, September 7th.
Expected iOS 10 Release Date
Ever since Apple held their iPhone event in September, the newest software was always released before the iPhone came out so the new phones would ship with the latest software. It has always come out a week after the event and on the first Wednesday. We expect this year to be no different.
Taking into account the previous years’ of iOS updates, I expect iOS 10 will be released on Wednesday, September 14th.
Expected iPhone 7 Release Date
Apple will be releasing their next-generation iPhone in September and this is the last major event for iPhone that will occur. The phone should come out in three styles: iPhone 7, iPhone 7 Plus, and iPhone 7 Pro. The last of which is still in question, but the rumors support three version of the tenth generation iPhone. Additionally, the phone will look quite similar to the iPhone 6s with less antenna lines, a larger camera sensor, a headphone jack-less body, and a touchpad Home button. Taking in consideration previous iPhone launches in September, it is always released on a Friday and either occurs the same week as the newest iOS launch or the following week.
Based on our calculations, the iPhone 7 should come out either Friday, September 16th. Apple will take pre-orders for the iPhone starting Friday, September 9th.
Apple will host four major events in September like they do every year for updates in the software and hardware of the iPhone. They may also release another iPad, the second-generation Apple Watch, new Macs, and potentially another Apple TV. All have been rumored, we just have to wait to find out the truth on September 6th…
Also for further evidence; here is what the very reliable iPhone leaker @evleaks says about the iPhone 7:
Just to clarify, this refers to the retail release, not the launch event. To be even more specific, it should happen on Friday, Sept. 16th.
— Evan Blass (@evleaks) July 23, 2016
Confirmed: Pre-orders start on the 9th. You can extrapolate the launch event date from there. https://t.co/gwoPzIM1dI
— Evan Blass (@evleaks) July 28, 2016